Overall and despite the ongoing impact and challenges we face due to the global pandemic it was another record year for real estate sales across the southern Georgian Bay area in 2021. In this post I will summarize overall results across our market area for the full year along with a general comment about where we may be headed in 2022.
MLS® sales in December of $153.6 Million were up 13% from one year ago while unit sales in December were up a modest 2% from December 2020. December is typically a weak month for sales due largely to people being consumed with the approaching holiday season.
Total MLS® dollar volume for the full year in 2021 of $2.6 Billion was up $623 Million or 31% from $2.0 Billion in 2020. In 2016 we broke the $1 billion dollar barrier for the first time ever re: MLS® sales in our area and a mere five years later that number has more than doubled.
Total MLS® unit sales in 2021 of 3,092 properties were just two more than sales of 3,090 units in 2020.
NOTE: These results are based on total MLS® sales for residential and commercial properties and vacant land in Clearview, Collingwood, Grey Highlands, Municipality of Meaford, the Blue Mountains and Wasaga Beach.
New MLS® listings in 2021 totalled 4,099 properties down 5% from 4,121 in 2020. Demand has clearly outpaced the number of properties listed for sale and this trend is expected to continue in 2022.
Year end MLS® single family sales total 1,997 down a modest 2% from 2,035 homes sold last year, condo sales of 614 units are up 2% while sales of vacant land have risen 8% from one year ago totalling 270 properties compared to 249 last year.
Sales in 2021 would undoubtedly have been risen higher had there been adequate inventory to support the robust demand. At the same time we can’t ignore the impact that new construction has had in our area. Several new subdivisions throughout the area have in many cases sold out with Buyers choosing to buy a newly constructed home or condominium versus purchasing a resale sale. For the most part, new home sales do no go through the MLS® System as developers have their own sales staff and deal with consumers directly.
The list to sale price ratio for 2021 ended the year at 100.4% compared to 98.5% last year. The list-to-sale price ratio had been declining monthly from a high of 102.7% back in April. As we progressed through the year there were fewer multiple offers where properties typically sell for well above asking. Moving forward I expect to see us moving back to a more balanced market for Buyers and Sellers alike where the typical list-to-sale price ratio is in the 97% to 98% range +/-.
The 2021 year end median residential price is just under $747,00 due to increased sales especially from $800,000 and up. This number fluctuated monthly in 2021 from a low $710,000 to a high of $799,000 in the month of December but overall it is a more stable value versus “average” sale prices which can change rapidly from month to month based on the mix of sales.
All of the above numbers including reduced unit sales activity, a slow down in multiple offers, a drop in the list-to-sale price ratio and the re-emergence of Seller price reductions indicates a changing market. As with anything, there is a finite number of Buyers and especially ones that are financially able and or willing to over pay above the listed asking price. To a large degree I believe we have perhaps exhausted the pool of Buyers that are prepared to enter the multiple offer wars where they blindly out bit others especially when this an uncertainly about where interest rates may go in the future.
2021 MLS® single family home sales varied by municipality as follows: Clearview Twp up 19%, Grey Highlands up 13%, Meaford up 5%, Blue Mountains down 16% with Collingwood & Wasaga Beach down 1% and 10% respectively from one year ago.
Year-to-date MLS® single family home sales are strongest at the upper end staring at $800,000 and above with home sales in these segments up anywhere from 60% to 104%.
While we still have a strong market the inventory of properties listed for sale on our MLS® System remains low and I expect this will continue through the winter months until we get closer to the spring. Now is an ideal time to sell thus maximizing the equity you have in your property but only if you (a) do need to buy something else or (b) you are in a position where you are buying something that is of much lesser value this allowing you to realize a significant monetary difference which could be invested elsewhere.
As we head into 2022 it remains to be seen what the future holds. The rampant growth in the Canadian real estate market both in terms of sales and price appreciation has been fuelled largely by record low mortgage rates. How long rates can and or should remain where they are remains to be seen. At the same time the COVID 19 pandemic rages on and this is having an impact on the global economy unlike we have ever seen. Further, consumer debt in Canada is staggering as as of September it stood at over $2.1 Trillion which is more than the value of Canada’s entire economy (Gross Domestic Product).
As with everything there is always a “day of reckoning,” when that day comes with respect to Canadian real estate remains to be seen but I believe it is much closer than anyone thinks and I will touch on this in future posts. Contact Me anytime for a non-obligation consultation regarding your real estate selling or buying needs and or objectives.
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