The condominium market in Southern Georgian Bay has seen significant shifts in recent years. After robust sales in 2020 and 2021, the market softened noticeably in 2022, 2023, and 2024, reflecting changes in Buyer demand, inventory levels, and broader economic conditions. Below, we delve into the latest trends and key insights to help you navigate the local condo market with confidence.
Fourth Quarter 2024 Market Snapshot
- Sales Volume: MLS® condominium sales in Q4 2024 totaled 68 units, marking a 17% decrease from 82 units sold in Q4 2023.
- Dollar Volume: Despite the drop in units sold, Q4 2024 saw a 15% increase in MLS® dollar sales for condominiums, totaling $45.9 million, up $5.9 million from the same Quarter last year.
Note: These statistics cover the municipalities of Clearview, Collingwood, Grey Highlands, Meaford, Blue Mountains, and Wasaga Beach. They do not include sales of newly built condos directly by developers, which typically bypass the MLS® System.
Year-End 2024 Overview
- Unit Sales: For the year, MLS® condo sales totaled 275 units, down 15% from 324 in 2023 and 55% below the 2021 peak.
- Dollar Volume: The total MLS® dollar volume for 2024 reached $177.8 million, an 18% decline from 2023 and a substantial 47% decrease from the record $387.5 million sold in 2021.
- Price Trends: The MLS® median sale price for 2024 was $547,200, a 6% drop compared to 2023. The median MLS® price had been rising in recent years especially during the robust sales period we experienced in the later half of 2020 and throughout 2021 into 2022. Many Sellers saw that period as the ideal time to sell when demand was high and inventory was low. Those circumstances have now reversed.
As shown in the chart below, condo unit sales in every price segment above $500,000 were down in 2024 versus 2023 especially in the $800,000 to $999,999 range as well as for those units priced over $1 million where sales were down 44% and 30% respectively. A weaker market with fewer sales overall, combined with significantly lower sales in these upper price ranges all contributed to a reduction in the median sale price.
Inventory and Market Dynamics
- Rising Listings: Condo listings on the MLS® System surged to 250 units by the end of 2024, a 40% increase from 179 units at the end of 2023. Many properties currently listed for sale were purchased in 2020 and 2021 driven by the ability of Buyers to work remotely as the result of the COVID 19 pandemic along with historically low mortgage rates. We are now in a period where 3 year mortgages are up for renewal at much higher rates with some Sellers choosing to or perhaps being are forced to sell particularly if their condo is a second versus a full time residence.
- As with single family residential homes, condo Buyers in this market have ample choices. With more inventory of units listed for sale, Buyers have greater negotiating leverage which in itself is affecting the pricing trend as mentioned above.
- Expired Listings: Expired condo listings rose slightly, with 180 recorded at year-end, compared to 171 in 2023. Many expired listings are eventually re-listed and sold, but the increase signals challenges for sellers in the current market.
Days on Market (DOM) and Sales Pace
- The year-to-date (YTD) median DOM for condos to sell in 2024 was 36 days, a notable improvement from 46 days in 2023. However, with weaker sales and rising inventory, the DOM may lengthen heading into 2025.
- Based on 2024 sales rates, there is approximately 10 months (333 days) of inventory on the market, emphasizing the importance of competitive pricing for sellers.
What’s Driving the Market?
- Buyer Preferences: Recent years have seen a preference for larger, high-end condos featuring garages, basements, and upscale finishes—a shift driven by Buyers seeking full-time residences without the maintenance of a single family home such as grass cutting, snow removal etc. The strongest segment here is priced $500,000 to $799,999.
- Economic Factors: Higher mortgage rates and inflationary pressures are impacting Buyers and condo corporations alike, influencing affordability and monthly condo fees.
- Regulatory Changes: Municipal restrictions on short-term rentals (less than 30 days) are affecting owners and potential Buyers relying on rental income to offset ownership costs. Professional legal or accounting advice is highly recommended for those navigating these changes.
Market Concentration
Condo sales remain heavily concentrated in Blue Mountains and Collingwood, accounting for 82% of total YTD sales in 2024. Wasaga Beach follows with 10%, while other municipalities make up the remaining share.
Outlook for 2025
From my perspective, the Southern Georgian Bay condo market will remain soft in 2025 as well as the real estate market overall, influenced by high inventory levels and persistent economic pressures the latter of which are at this point unknown. If proposed tariffs are implemented on Canadian products shipped into the U.S., this will have an adverse affect on our economy at a time when inflation and other global issues are still very much in play. Sellers, whether of condominiums, single family homes, cottages and or other property types in general, will need to focus on realistic pricing and strategic marketing to attract Buyers in a market increasingly favoring purchasers.
Expert Guidance for Buyers and Sellers
Real estate has always proven to be a solid investment provided it is done correctly. Navigating the complexities of the current market especially for condominiums requires experience and local knowledge. Whether you are considering buying, selling, or simply exploring your options, I’m here to help. With over 20 years of experience in the Southern Georgian Bay real estate market, I provide personalized advice tailored to your unique needs.
Reach out to me directly at 705-443-1037 or email rcrouch@sothebysrealty.ca for expert guidance on your next move in the condominium market.
NOTE: The author is a Broker, Market Value Appraiser-Residential with Sotheby’s International Realty Canada and a Past President (2008) of the Lakeland’s Association of REALTORS®.