On a grey and dreary Good Friday, I thought it was the ideal time to take advantage of the advanced voting available for the upcoming Canadian Federal Election 2025. Upon arriving at the polling station (the Beaver Valley Community Centre, Thornbury, Ontario) I was pleasantly surprised to find it busy which for me and I suspect others was an encouraging sign.
As Canadians we have a great deal to be thankful for and at stake in this election. A the very least, I am thankful that we have the ability to elect a new federal party and or Prime Minister in a couple of months while for our U.S. neighbours the process drags on for the better part of two years.
After casting my vote I returned home and did some research after which and combined with my own thoughts, I sat down and drafted this post. While there isn’t an official forecast for voter turnout in Canada’s 2025 Federal Election scheduled for April 28, several indicators suggest that turnout could be notably high. Politico
Factors Influencing Potentially High Voter Turnout
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U.S. Influence and Trade Tensions: The re-election of U.S. President Donald Trump and the imposition of new tariffs have significantly impacted Canadian politics. These developments have shifted voter priorities, with many Canadians viewing the election as a referendum on how best to confront Trump’s aggressive policies and his negative attitude towards our country who he claims has been “ripping off the U.S.
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Competitive Race Between Major Parties: The election has become a closely contested race between Liberal Leader Mark Carney and Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre. This tight competition is likely to mobilize voters who are keen to influence the outcome.
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Youth Engagement: Generation Z voters are emerging as a significant electoral force. While historically, younger demographics have had lower turnout rates, their increasing political activism, especially online, suggests a potential uptick in their participation.
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Snap Election Dynamics: The snap nature of this election, called earlier than the fixed-date provision, has heightened political engagement and urgency among the electorate. The Telegraph
- Changing Demographics: After having a Liberal MP (Paul Bonwick) from 1997 to 2004 at which time he lost to Conservative Helena Guergis by 100 votes, the riding of Simcoe Grey has voted Conservative. That is not to say it will again this time. Nothing in this world is certain and personally, I do not put much value in election pols. With a large influx of new residents to the area many of which have moved here in recent years from the Greater Toronto Area, the riding’s demographic makeup has changed so anything is possible.
Historical Context
In previous federal elections going back to 2000 voter turnout has fluctuated as have the results as follows:
- 2000: 64.1% Liberals
- 2004: 60.0% Liberals
- 2006: 64.7% Conservatives
- 2008: 58.8% Conservatives
- 2011: 61.1% Conservatives
- 2015: 68.3% Liberals
- 2019: 67.0% Liberals
- 2021: 62.6% Liberals
According to BallotPedia voter turnout in the 2024 U.S. Presidential election voter turnout was 63.7% while Doug Ford’s Conservatives were re-elected earlier this year with a rather disappointing voter turnout of just 45.4% see Global News.
Given the current political climate, it’s plausible that the 2025 election could see turnout levels approaching or even exceeding those of 2015. Those manning the polling station today claim the forecast is for 65% to 70% of those Canadians eligible to vote will do so this time around.
Conclusion
While precise predictions are challenging, the combination of heightened political stakes, a competitive race, and increased youth engagement suggests that voter turnout in the 2025 Canadian federal election could be significantly higher than in recent years. Given our current relationship with the U.S. and with other events happening around the world, there has never been more reasons to do your part in selecting a federal government with the knowledge and leadership to navigate our country through these challenging times and uncertain waters.
NOTE: The author is a Broker, Market Value Appraiser-Residential with Sotheby’s International Realty Canada and a Past President (2008) of the One Point Association of REALTORS®.