After 5 consecutive months of increased sales activity May thru September versus the same period in 2022, MLS® sales across the Southern Georgian Bay area softened in October indicating the current market downturn is clearly not over.
MLS® dollar sales in October of $107.6 million were down $4.7 million from $112.3.6 million in October 2022, a decrease of 4% and although modest it’s a decrease in sales activity compared to increases we saw in the previous 5 months.
MLS® unit sales in October of 127 properties were down just 5 units from October 2022 however it is worth noting that MLS ® unit sales in October were the lowest level that we have seen since February of this year.
As I will point out in this report lack of inventory, the number properties listed for sale on the MLS® System can no longer be touted as the cause of weaker sales activity.
MLS® dollar volume year-to-date (YTD) to the end of October of $1.308 billion is $253.7 million (16%) less than the first 10 months of 2022 when $1.562 billion in sales were reported. In terms of the number of properties sold, October YTD MLS® unit sales total 1,603 properties down a modest 5% from 1,693 sales a year ago.
While MLS® dollar & unit sales continue to run behind 2022 especially those properties priced over $800,000, we continue to see an increase in MLS® listing activity leading to a rise in inventory of properties available for purchase.
New MLS® listings in October totaled 486 properties up by 110 units (29%) from 376 new listings in October 2022. Beginning back in March, the number of new listings per month have been running between 400 to over 600 units per month. Sales between $300,000 to $800,000 have been on the rise whereas above $800,000 they are well below 2022. YTD 2023 new MLS® listings of 4,604 units are 568 (14%) more than 4,036 new MLS ® listings for the first 10 months of 2022. See chart below.
Current active MLS® listings in the area total 1,282, this is the highest level of MLS® listed inventory we have seen since September 2016. Lack of inventory can no longer be claimed as the cause of weaker sales and or pricing. Overall demand remains softer, prices have come down, inventory has increased with properties taking longer to sell.
To the end of October, overall Days-On-Market (DOM) for the first 10 months of 2023 is 37 days whereas a year ago it was at 19 days for the same period in 2022.
Expired MLS ® listings at the end of October total 570 properties the highest we have seen in 7 years. The number of expired listings is on the rise due to fewer sales some due to properties being “overpriced” in today’s changing market.
NOTE: These results are based on total MLS® sales for residential, commercial properties & vacant land in Clearview, Collingwood, Grey Highlands, Municipality of Meaford, the Blue Mountains & Wasaga Beach.
YTD MLS® single family home sales total 1,095 units, 2% fewer than 1,117 homes sold this time last year. Condo sales of 282 units are down 10% from 312 in 2022 while vacant land sales of 71 properties are down 46%. Vacant land is one segment of the market where inventory is low.
NOTE: The statistics contained herein do not include the sale of new homes and condominiums made outside of the MLS ® system by builders and or developers own sales staff nor do they include full time or seasonal rentals.
The YTD MLS® median residential sale price is $730,000 compared to $794,700 a year ago a decline of 8%. The median sale price has been trending down due to lower sale prices overall & significantly reduced sales activity above $1 million. These factors have all contributed to the decrease in the median MLS® sale price over the past 12 months.
The YTD MLS® residential list-to-sale price ratio is 96.9% down from 99.1% this time last year & well below 100.9% in 2021. Multiple offers have diminished significantly. Buyers are simply not willing or able to pay above listed prices due to increased mortgage rates.
In a balanced market the list-to-sale price ratio in our area has typically ranged from 95% to 97% +/- hence we are simply trending back to those historical list-to-sale price dynamics.
While MLS® single family home sales priced from $300,000 to $799,999 are up anywhere from 37% to 70% over 2022, properties priced $800,000 & higher remain well below 2022 & are currently running 29% to 60% below this time last year see chart below.
Significantly lower sales in the upper price segments of the market have occurred despite the fact that the current inventory of luxury, higher end homes has increased see my 3rd Quarter Luxury Properties Market Report for details.
Other than in Wasaga Beach where sales are up 17% YTD & in Collingwood where sales are even with last year, MLS® single family home sales are down in every other local municipality: Clearview Twp -7%, Grey Highlands -22%, Meaford -8% and Blue Mountains -20%.
NOTE: Single family home sales in the Blue Mountains are down the most as that municipality has the largest market share of sales over $1 million & those price segments are experiencing the biggest decline in 2023.
As we progress through the remainder of fall I forecast we may continue to see a modest increase in MLS® sales across some segments of the market especially at the lower end $300,000 to $800,000. Very quickly we shifted from a robust Seller’s market in 2020 and 2021 to a more balanced market in 2022. All of the above mentioned statistics would suggest another story has unfolded in 2023 with a new chapter that can only be described as a Buyer’s market.
For anyone that is thinking about or is currently trying to get their home or other property sold especially in the upper price segments of the market pricing remains key to getting results. Contract me to learn more or for a now obligation consultation about your particular real estate selling or buying needs or objectives.