After strong sales during 2020/ 2021 and a brisk start to 2022, MLS® real estate sales in the Southern Georgian Bay have continue to soften this year including condominiums, due largely to higher mortgage rates, inflation and a looming recession.

MLS® condo sales for the first 9 months of 2022 of 285 units are 191 fewer than the 476 units sold in the same period last year a decrease of 40%.  As shown in the chart below, the only segment of the condo market that has shown growth in 2022 is for those units price $1 million and higher with 45 units sold this year versus 37 in 2021.

Year-to-date (YTD) MLS® condo sales dollar volume of $201.3 million is 32% less than $293.7 million during the first 9 months of last year.

NOTE:  This data includes the municipalities of Clearview, Collingwood, Grey Highlands,  Meaford, Blue Mountains and Wasaga Beach.  Sales of new condos made by developers are not included in these numbers as those sale do not go through the MLS® System.

The median MLS® sale price for condo units has risen steadily over the past 5 years resulting from larger units being built with higher end finishes and amenities such as garages being added.  The market demand has clearly shifted upwards from smaller recreational units that were popular in the 1980’s and 90’s in places such as Cranberry Resort and Lighthouse Point to larger units more suitable for full time residency.

At the end of 2021 the overall median price was $572,000 up from $425,600 in 2020.  The YTD median sale price at the end of the 3rd Quarter 2022 is $608,700 an increase of 7% from last year.  It is worth noting however that the current median price is now 5% less than $642,900 which it was at the end of the 2nd Quarter back in June with most of this decline coming from weaker sales activity.

As mentioned above, the median sale price has risen in recent years largely due to the types of condos being built and sold.  Today, Buyer demand is for larger units with garages, basements and high end finishes.  Units currently listed for sale on the MLS® System vary widely from $189,900 to $1.449 million.

As of the end of the 3rd Quarter the Blue Mountains has the highest median sale price at $665,000 followed by Collingwood at $631,300.  With close proximity to Blue Mountain Resort and other area ski clubs etc., condos in that municipality offer good rental income potential which adds to their appeal and value in the eyes or some Buyers.

NOTE:  The median sale price is the mid-point in pricing of all units sold year-to-date whereas average sale price is determined by dividing total sales dollars by the number of units sold. This can change dramatically on a month-to-month basis.

Condominium sales are concentrated largely in the Blue Mountains and Collingwood.  Through the end of the 3rd quarter these two municipalities represent 49% and 37% of the market respectively with Wasaga Beach coming in at 10% of the overall condo market in terms of the number of units sold.

The chart below shows a 5 year history of condominium sales in the region.

As of this report there are currently 67 condo units listed for sale on the MLS® System, 1 unit more than at the end of the 2nd Quarter.  At the beginning of 2022 days-on-market (DOM), the time in which it took condos to sell was 9 or 10 days.  The average DOM has risen in recent months to 29 days and I anticipate that number will increase in this shifting market with weaker demand.

Based on the current rate of sales in 2022 to the end of September, there is roughly 2 months of condo inventory listed for sale on the local MLS® System, this is up from just 3 weeks of inventory at the end of the 1st Quarter back in March.

For the balance of 2022 I expect the demand for condo units like the real estate market overall will remain weaker than what we saw in 2020 and 2021.  We will however no doubt see a modest increase in sales activity as we typically do when the ski season approaches.

The purchase of a condominium cannot be taken lightly.  Inflation is having an affect on us all and this is sure to have an impact on condominium corporation’s operating budgets which may in the longer term alter the condo fees paid by owners for maintenance etc.  Further, many municipalities are looking at further restricting short-term rentals which are rental periods of less than 30 consecutive days.  Zoning in many municipalities across the province generally prohibit short-term rentals while some area such as the Blue Mountains have implemented a Short Term Accommodation (STA) By-Law which requires getting an STA license.  Expect other municipalities to follow which is going to have an impact on some condo Buyers and perhaps current owners that wish to or already rent their units out to help offset their ownership costs.

Contact Me for a confidential consultation of your condominium selling or buying objectives, I would be pleased to assist you in determining if it’s the right move for you.