While real estate activity in the Southern Georgina Bay area has continued to remain strong in 2022, sales in the 1st quarter have dropped slightly compared to this time last year.
Year-to-date total MLS® dollar volume in the 1st quarter of 2022 was $607.8 million down $5.6 million (1%) from $613.4 million in the 1st quarter of 2021. Nonetheless, year-to-date sales in 2022 are still $348.1 million or 134% greater than the first three months of 2020 when the global pandemic arrived.
MLS® dollar sales in March alone of $239.4 million were $68.6 million or 22% less than sales of $308.1 million in March 2021. While the results of just one month do not reflect a trend, we cannot ignore the fact that with the arrival of spring, real estate sales seasonally spike upwards in March. The fact this did not happen in March may well signal that the long anticipated departure from the robust market conditions we have experienced over the last two years has perhaps arrived.
Year-to-date 1st quarter MLS® unit sales total 597 properties a decrease of 22% from 769 sales last year. MLS® unit sales in March alone were down 34% with 253 compared to 382 sales in March of 2021.
NOTE: These results are based on total MLS® sales for residential and commercial properties and vacant land in Clearview, Collingwood, Grey Highlands, Municipality of Meaford, the Blue Mountains and Wasaga Beach.
New MLS® listings in the 1st quarter total 900 properties down from 965 or 7% from the 1st quarter of last year. New MLS® listing in March totalled 419 versus 484 in March 2021. Low inventory remains an issue in many markets across Canada and the Southern Georgina Bay region is no exception. At the same time the construction of new homes which are generally not sold through the MLS® System have remained strong which has no doubt impacted the re-sale housing market.
Year-to-date 1st quarter MLS® single family sales total 378 down 21% from 477 homes sold last year, condo sales of 113 units are 27% below the 1st quarter of 2021. Conversely, vacant land sales of 29 are up from 12 this time last year an increase of 141%.
NOTE: The statistics contained herein do not include the sale of new homes and condominiums made outside of the MLS ® system by builders and or developers and their own sales staff nor do they include full time or seasonal rentals. \
The residential list-to-sale price ratio for the 1st quarter was 103.1%. This number moves each month, at the end of January it was 100.0%, for February alone it was 106.4% dropping down to 103.0% for the month of March. The list-to-sale price ratio had been declining from a high of 102.7% back in April 2021 but has bounced back up thus far in 2022, we’ll see if this holds but I suspect not
MLS ® unit sales have been softening for some time caused somewhat by the aforementioned lack of inventory listed for sale. Overall, MLS ® dollar volume continues to be boosted by the robust sales in the higher end price segments of the market. This is why MLS® dollar volume continues to rise despite the ongoing reduction in the number of properties sold.
Year-to-date MLS® single family home sales are strongest at the upper end of the market staring at $800,000 and above. Home sales in these segments are up substantially which has a profound impact on the median sale price. I expect we will see this soften again as the year progress.
The median residential price in March was $903,000 down from $918,750 in February yet was 27% higher than this time in 2021. See chart below.
Year-to-date MLS® single family home sales are down in every local municipality: Clearview Twp -37%, Grey Highlands -35%, Meaford -11%, Blue Mountains -10%, Collingwood -8% & Wasaga Beach is down 24% from one year ago.
The total inventory of properties listed for sale on the MLS® System remains low. Spring is now here and as mentioned above real estate listing activity historically gains speed with the better weather. This year has started off differently as I was predicting it would. Based on rising inflation, including higher gas prices, increased mortgage rates and the situation in Ukraine all adds to the possibility of a looming recession. Whether it’s buying a home, a new car or any large purchase, this is certainly on the minds of many of us.
In addition to the uncertainly that we currently find ourselves in, I also believe that the real estate market overall is facing “Buyer fatigue.” It has clearly been a Seller’s market for the past 2 years. Purchasing a property can, at the best of times bring on a level of stress. In the past couple of years, consumers wishing to buy a home have had to endure the added stress associated with inflated asking prices and multiple offers resulting in bidding wars. Some Buyers have lost out two, three times or more in their efforts to purchase a home or other property. This coupled with the factors I have outlined herein have caused many to no doubt sit back and take a “let’s wait and see” attitude before moving forward. Personally, I for one can’t blame them and I will speak to this in a future post.
There has clearly never been a better time to sell and to maximize the equity that you have in your home or other property. Not every selling or buying scenario is the same, there is no “one size fits all” aspect to either selling or buying a property and that has never been more accurate than right not.
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