Real estate sales across southern Georgian Bay remain well ahead of 2020 but there are several indications the market is slowing down.
Total MLS® dollar volume in June of $246.8 million was up $46.6 million from June 2020 an increase of 23% but overall market activity was less than the prior months of April and May.
MLS® unit sales for June of 304 properties were 25 units fewer than June 2020, 10 fewer than in May and 51 less than in April.
Year-to-date MLS® sales total $1.425 billion up $831.1 million or 149% from $593.7 million in sales during the first six months of 2020.
NOTE: These results are based on total MLS® sales for residential and commercial properties and vacant land in Clearview, Collingwood, Grey Highlands, Municipality of Meaford, the Blue Mountains and Wasaga Beach.
Year-to-date new MLS® listings in June totalled 436 properties down from 990 new listings last year. Year-to-date expired MLS ® listings are up 39% as fewer Buyers seem unwilling to pay over the asking price.
A pattern is emerging here, MLS ® dollar and unit sales both decreased in June from the levels we saw in the prior months of April and May, we are also seeing a return to price reductions.
June YTD MLS® single family sales total 1,117 up 60% from 700 homes sold last year, condo sales of 343 units are up 80% from last year while sales of vacant land have risen 130% from one year ago.
NOTE: The statistics contained herein do not include the sale of new homes and condominiums made outside of the MLS ® system by builders and or developers and their own sales staff nor do they include full time or seasonal rentals.
The year-to-date list to sale price ratio is 100.0% compared to 98.5% last year and down from 102% at the end of May.
The year-to-date median residential price is $710,000 driven by increased sales above $500,000 and especially from $800,000 and up. This is up $200,000 or 39% from the median price $510,000 last year at this time but it is also down from the previous month. The average time-on-market is 25 days but that number appears to be trending upwards as sales activity slows.
Year-to-date MLS® single family home sales by municipality: Clearview Twp up 82%, Blue Mountains up 71% Grey Highlands up 49%, Wasaga Beach and Collingwood both up 51%, sales in Meaford are up 75%.
Year-to-date MLS® single family home sales are strongest at the upper end staring from $800,000 and above with home sales in these segments up anywhere from 233% to 378% over the prior year.
As we head through the summer and into the fall it will be interesting to see if the downturn in real estate sales continues leading to a more balanced market for Buyers and Sellers alike. Based on the recent numbers and my 20 years of being in this business I personally believe that the market has shifted. The following are the leading indicators:
- Total MLS® sales in June were less than in both April and May.
- The frequency of multiple offers has decreased and when they do happen are in smaller numbers.
- The year-to-date median residential price in June of $710,000 was less than in the prior month.
- The year-to-date residential list-to-sale price ratio which measures in a percentage sale prices versus asking prices fell from 102.2% in May to 100.0% in June.
- Price reductions which is something we have seen little of in the past 12 months are back and in significant numbers.
All of these numbers are tangible ways to measure market activity and I believe they can’t be ignored. Only time will tell if the current slow down is driven by the arrival of summer with people preoccupied with family time/vacations etc. or is it a longer term trend. I believe it’s the latter.
Stay safe and stay tuned.