The southern Georgian Bay real estate market has shifted from the robust conditions we experienced earlier this year and through much of 2020 when Sellers were clearly in the driver’s seat. Numerous indicators indicate that the market has continued to slow down here as well as in other areas across Ontario and Canada as a whole. Although we continue to see some multiple offers with properties selling for over asking, the frequency of those transactions is much slower than what we saw in the previous 18 to 24 months.
Total MLS® dollar volume in August of $224.0 million was down 33% from $298.4 million in sales during August 2020 reflecting a drop of almost $75 million.
MLS® unit sales in August were down 200 units or 44%, with 260 properties sold in 2021 compared to 460 sales in August of last year.
Year-to-date MLS® sales total $1.839 billion up $650.5 million or 55% from $1.189 billion in the first eight months of 2020 when COVID 19 hit. Sales rebounded midway through 2020 and that has carried over into 2021 but monthly sales have been declining since March with the exception of August. MLS® sales in August were up 15% from the July, this was the first month since March where monthly sales exceeded the prior month.
NOTE: These results are based on total MLS® sales for residential and commercial properties and vacant land in Clearview, Collingwood, Grey Highlands, Municipality of Meaford, the Blue Mountains and Wasaga Beach.
New MLS® listings in August totalled 312 properties down from 449 August 2020. Year-to-date new MLS® listings are up marginally (4%) compared to last year. Lower inventory of properties listed for sale on the MLS® is not a new trend, this has been happening for the last 10 or more years. One only needs to look at the number of new home and condominium developments being built around Collingwood and the surrounding municipalities many of which have sold out quickly. That would appear to indicate that Buyer demand is being met with new construction which is generally sold by developers outside of the MLS® System. I will speak more to this in a future post.
August YTD MLS® single family sales total 1,440 up 31% from 975 homes sold last year, condo sales of 384 units are up 45% while sales of vacant land have risen 79% from one year ago.
NOTE: The statistics contained herein do not include the sale of new homes and condominiums made outside of the MLS ® system by builders and or developers and their own sales staff nor do they include full time or seasonal rentals.
MLS ® dollar and unit sales have essentially been decreasing monthly since March, we are also seeing a return to price reductions in significant numbers and values. The year-to-date list to sale price ratio is 102.3% compared to 98.1% last year. The list to sale price ratio has been declining monthly from a high of 102.7% in April to 98.5% in August.
The year-to-date median residential price is $707,419 driven by increased sales above $500,000 and especially from $800,000 and up. That number however is declining down from $797,000 in July.
Year-to-date MLS® single family home sales by municipality: Clearview Twp up 27%, Blue Mountains down 6% Grey Highlands up 31%, Wasaga Beach up 2%, Collingwood up 9%, with sales in Meaford up 6%.
Year-to-date MLS® single family home sales are strongest at the upper end staring at $800,000 and above with home sales in these segments up anywhere from 90% to 175%.
All of the above numbers including reduced sales activity, fewer multiple offers, a drop in the list-to-sale price ratio and the re-emergence of price reductions would clearly illustrate the market has shifted.
Prior to becoming a real estate Broker 20 years ago, I held a number of executive positions in corporate management both in Canada and the U.S. As such it was necessary for me to become a “numbers guy” setting and achieving budgets, understanding and explaining profit or loss statements and more. This characteristic and ability has carried over into my real estate business. Now more than ever with the real estate market clearly in a period of transition, I believe there is a real need to be able to provide and explain current and accurate real estate data in order to best inform our valued clients. Doing so is the only way in which they can make informed, rational decisions about their buying and or selling needs. REALTORS® really need tpo work hard to earn consumer’s “trust.”
As we head into the fall I forecast we will have a strong market albeit in a different atmosphere overall from this time last year or even in the first quarter of 2021. It is my belief that real estate sales will continue the trend we have seen in the last 5 to 6 months resulting in a balanced market for Buyers and Sellers alike. Please do not hesitate to Contact Me for a no obligation consultation of your particular real estate needs and or goals, I’m always glad top help.