The real estate market is no stranger to change including here in Southern Georgina Bay area and in 2024 the market has indeed shifted. With home sales similar to 2023 and 2022 levels in terms of the number of units sold (see chart below) but down significantly from the record highs of 2020 and 2021, many homeowners are now wondering if it’s the right time to sell, especially if a mortgage renewal with a higher interest rate is looming. Let’s take a closer look at what’s happening in our local market and what it means for those thinking of selling their home.
NOTE: This post is based on total MLS® sales for residential properties in Clearview, Collingwood, Grey Highlands, Municipality of Meaford, the Blue Mountains & Wasaga Beach.
The Market Has Softened, But Demand is Still There
After two robust years in 2020 and 2021, the local market as in many parts of Canada started to cool in 2022 with 2024 home sales down around 34% to 36% from 2020 and 2021 respectively. This however isn’t necessarily a bad thing. Our current sales numbers are in line with the steadier pace of the last two years, which means that while the frenzy has slowed, there are still Buyers out there looking for the right home in the Southern Georgian Bay area priced at fair market value.
Inventory is High – And That’s an Opportunity for Sellers
If you’ve been watching the market, you’ve probably noticed the increase in homes listed for sale. Many neighbourhoods have multiple “For Sale” signs up and those signs are staying up longer before a “SOLD” sticker goes on. Inventory on the local MLS® System for the area mentioned above is at its highest since 2015. With more options Buyers have more choices and better leverage when negotiating. As strange as this may sound, this can also be good news for Sellers who prepare and price their home correctly to attract Buyers in the current real estate environment. In a market with plenty of options, those homes that stand out reflecting pride of ownership, good curb appeal, offer quality, value and are fairly priced will attract serious Buyers, especially those who need or want to make a purchase.
Mortgage Rates Are Pressuring Some Homeowners
One of the biggest concerns for homeowners right now is the higher cost of borrowing. Many who bought in 2020 and 2021 did so at ultra-low mortgage rates and during a time when prices were often high driven by both demand and multiple offers. During that period, Buyers often paid well over the Seller’s asking price. Often, they did so with the thought “what’s another couple of hundred thousand dollars to spend…” when the cost of borrowing was so cheap. Those days are now over with many of those Buyers now facing mortgage renewal at today’s higher mortgage rates. If this is you, it might feel like there’s a clock ticking, especially if your new payment won’t fit as comfortably into your monthly budget as it did at the time. Looking at properties currently listed on the MLS® System, my research shows that many of the homes currently listed for sale were bought in 2020 and 2021 during the period of high prices but low mortgage rates. There is always a day of reckoning and it appears for some that day may be here.
In these situations, selling could be a strategic move. By selling now, you might avoid locking in a higher rate or paying out additional costs. And if you’re looking to downsize or make a change, it can free you from the pressure of rising payments while allowing you to build a plan with the proceeds from your sale.
Pricing is Key in Today’s Market
One thing to keep in mind is that we are no longer in the record-breaking market of 2020 and 2021. Today, Buyers have more choices, are cautious and in fact can’t overpay. Further, banks and other mortgage lenders are also cautious and sales conditional on the Buyer getting financing can fall apart if bank appraisals come in under the amount the Buyer is willing to pay. If you’re thinking of listing your home or other property for sale, it’s essential to set a realistic price that aligns with current market conditions and having a Comparable Market Analysis prepared for your home is crucial. Overpricing can leave a home sitting on the market, leading to price reductions that may weaken both its appeal as well as your negotiating leverage. But a well-priced, well-prepared home will attract serious offers, even in a more balanced market such as the one we are in today. Having owned a dozen properties myself over the years in both Canada and the U.S. I have personally been through the real estate market’s highs and lows and only one did I lose money on.
Southern Georgian Bay is Still a Desirable Area
Despite market changes, Southern Georgian Bay remains one of Ontario’s most desirable areas to live. With a beautiful natural environment, vibrant communities, and a quality of life that draws people from all over. This area has a strong appeal that isn’t going anywhere with Buyers continuing to look to this market both as a place to live full of part-time as well as to invest in. As larger urban areas continue to experience congestion and affordability challenges, areas such as Southern Georgian Bay will continue to experience an ongoing demand that helps keep our market resilient, even when it’s no longer in the “boom” mode we experienced in 2020 and 2021
So, Is Now the Right Time for You to Sell?
It depends on your unique situation, but here are a few key takeaways that I have learned over my 20 plus years as both a real estate Broker and homeowner:
- If you’re facing a significant rate increase on a mortgage renewal, selling could provide financial relief and flexibility.
- Setting the right price is critical to attract today’s Buyers as well as to satisfy mortgage lenders for those consumers than need financing.
- Homes that are well maintained and in good condition that stand out for quality and value are still selling.
- Southern Georgian Bay’s desirability is here to stay, keeping demand steady even in this shifting market.
Whether you’re just starting to explore your options or already thinking about your next steps, getting a full understanding of sales and listing activity in your area can give you a clearer sense of what to expect in today’s market. As real estate professionals our job is to provide guidance on pricing, marketing, and timing to help you make the best decision for your situation.
Change may be the theme of 2024, but with the right approach, there’s still opportunity for Sellers in Southern Georgian Bay. If you’d like to talk about your options, feel free to reach out for a no obligation consultation about your personal real estate needs and objectives, I’d be happy to help. rcrouch@sothebysrealty.ca or direct at 705-443-1037
Note: This blog post is not intended to solicit properties already listed for sale or to encourage sellers to break their current listing contract with any other real estate Brokerage.
The author is a Broker, Market Value Appraiser-Residential with Sotheby’s International Realty Canada and a Past President (2008) of the Lakeland’s Association of REALTORS®.