May thru August, MLS® sales across the Southern Georgian Bay region have now shown 4 consecutive months of sales growth over the same period last year. At the same time, not all segments of the market relative to price are performing above the level of sales we saw in 2022.
MLS® dollar sales in August of $137.7 million were up $16.7 million from $121.0 million in August 2022, an increase of 17%. It is worth noting that sales in August were well below both June and July which posted increases of 53% and 48% respectively year-over-year.
MLS® unit sales in August of 166 properties were up 22 units, a modest 15% increase from August 2022 when 144 MLS ® sales were reported. August YTD MLS® unit sales total 1,137 properties down 10% from 1,268 sales a year ago. August YTD MLS® unit sales total 1,137 properties down 10% from 1,268 sales a year ago.
MLS® dollar volume year-to-date (YTD) to the end of August of $1.113 billion is $247.5 million or 18% less than this time last year and 53% below the first 8 months of 2021.
While MLS® dollar & unit sales continue to run behind both 2022 and 2021, we are seeing an increase in MLS® listing activity. New MLS® listings in August totaled 461 properties up by 91 units (25%) from 370 new listings in August 2022.
YTD 2023 MLS® new listings of 3,528 units are now 341 (11%) more than the number of new MLS ® listings for the first 8 months of 2022. See chart below. Current active MLS® listings in the area totaling 1,204, this is the highest level of inventory we have seen since 2017.
Lack of inventory can no longer be touted as the cause of reduced sales and or pricing. Demand remains softer, prices have come down & properties are staying on the market longer prior to being SOLD especially those priced $800,000 & above.
Expired MLS ® listings at the end of August total 483 up from 390 in July. Despite increased listing & sales activity May through August, the number of expired listings is on the rise due to many properties being “overpriced” in today’s changing market.
NOTE: These results are based on total MLS® sales for residential, commercial properties & vacant land in Clearview, Collingwood, Grey Highlands, Municipality of Meaford, the Blue Mountains & Wasaga Beach.
YTD MLS® single family home sales total 895 units, 4% fewer from 932 homes sold this time last year. Condo sales of 229 units are down 10% from 255 in 2022 while vacant land sales of 55 properties are down 53% largely due to a lack of land & lots available for sale.
NOTE: The statistics contained herein do not include the sale of new homes and condominiums made outside of the MLS ® system by builders and or developers own sales staff nor do they include full time or seasonal rentals.
The YTD MLS® median residential sale price is $731,000 compared to $831,200 a year ago a decline of over $100,000 (12%). The median sale price has been trending down due to fewer multiple offers, lower sale prices overall & significantly reduced sales activity above $1 million. These factors have all contributed to the decrease in the median MLS® sale price over the past 12 months.
The YTD MLS® residential list-to-sale price ratio is 96.9% down from 99.9% this time last year & 101.1% in 2021. Multiple offers have diminished significantly. Buyers are simply not willing or able to pay above list price due to increased mortgage rates & lenders have become increasingly cautious with mortgage approvals.
In a balanced market the list-to-sale price ratio in our area has typically been in the 95% to 97% range & we appear to be trending back to those historical list-to-sale price dynamics.
While MLS® single family home sales priced from $300,000 to $799,999 are up anywhere from 54 to 133% over 2022, properties priced $800,000 & higher remain well below 2022 & are currently running 28% to 60% below this time last year, see chart below.
In August, the median days-on-market (DOM) for residential sales was 38 days up from 29 in July. Overall DOM for the first 8 months of 2023 is 31 days whereas a year ago it was at 15 days.
Other than in Wasaga Beach where sales are up 16% YTD, MLS® single family home sales are down in every other local municipality: Clearview Twp -8%, Collingwood -7%, Grey Highlands -20%, Meaford -9% and Blue Mountains -23%.
NOTE: Single family home sales in the Blue Mountains are down the most as that municipality has the largest market share of sales over $1 million & those price segments are experiencing the biggest decline in 2023.
While we now have four consecutive months of increased MLS sales activity it is to early to say that the current real estate slump is over. Inflation is still very much with us as are increased mortgage rates both of which continue to impact sales. Heading into the fall market I forecast we will continue to see a modest increase in MLS® sales activity up until mid November when sales annually begin to taper off prior to the holiday season.
Under the right circumstances, now is still a good time to sell or buy. We do not have the robust market conditions that we had a year or two ago but those characteristics favoured only Sellers not Buyers. A “balanced” market such as what we have returned to levels the playing field for everyone. Whether you are selling, buying or both, a real estate transaction under these conditions is far better than where we were a couple of years ago.
Please do not hesitate to Contact Me if you have any questions or comments.