As quickly as the real estate market regained momentum following the arrival of the global pandemic, its slow down has been equally as fast if not more so.  Many felt we were riding the crest of a never ending real estate wave driven by record low interest rates that fuelled high consumer demand and purchasing.  Conversely, many myself included knew this was neither a healthy market nor a sustainable one.  It was only a matter of time when the real estate wave would wash ashore and the market would either correct itself or would change dynamics driven by a rising interest rates, inflation, a slowing economy and other factors such as the war in Ukraine.

The end of June marked both the end of the 2nd quarter of 2022 but also 4 consecutive months of declining real estate activity in the Southern Georgian Bay region, with many other markets across Canada all showing a similar trend.

Total MLS® dollar sales in June through the MLS® System of the Lakelands Association of REALTORS® of $136.0 million were $110.3 million less than $246.3 million in June 2021 a decrease of 45%.

MLS® unit sales in June of 148 properties reflected a slightly higher decrease in activity than dollar volume with the total number of property sales in the region down 51% from June 2021 when the market was still red hot!

Total MLS® dollar volume in the 2nd Quarter of $536.8 million was $269.0 million less than the 2nd Quarter of 2021 a decrease of 33%. Declining real estate activity actually commenced in March and carried on in April, May and June.  Similarly total 2nd Quarter MLS® sales of 553 units are down 43% from the 2nd Quarter of 2021.

Total Year-to-date (YTD) MLS® dollar volume to the end if June of $1.146 billion is $272 million (19%) below $1.418 billion for the first 6 months of 2021 while YTD MLS® unit sales of 1,154 properties are down 38% from 1,741 MLS® sales in the first half of last year.

NOTE:  These results are based on total MLS® sales for residential and commercial properties and vacant land in Clearview, Collingwood, Grey Highlands, Municipality of Meaford, the Blue Mountains and Wasaga Beach. 

New MLS® listings in June totalled 483 versus 431 in June 2021.  YTD MLS® listings total 2,383 properties 2% less from last year.  Listing activity actually increased 2% during the 2nd Quarter primarily in May and June as shown in the chart below with sellers hoping to sell before the market slows further.

YTD MLS® single family home sales while well below last year remain strong at the upper end of the market but those segments are starting to slow as well.  Home sales in these segments continue to have a profound impact on sustaining the median sale price of homes and the total dollar volume of MLS® area sales overall.  The median sale price for the first six months of 2022 is $867,600 well above this time last year.

The YTD list-to-sale price ratio in June was 101.1% down from 101.9% in May.  The list-to-sale price ratio had been steadily declining as the market slows with fewer sales and a significant reduction in the number of multiple offers.  For sale signs are remaining on properties much longer before a “SOLD” sign goes up and price reductions which were virtually non-existent over the past couple of years are now happening regularly,  I fully expect this trend will continue for the balance of 2022 and into 2023 based on inflation and the threat of a recession.

YTD single family home sales of 760 units are down 32% from 2021 while condominium and vacant land sales are down 39% and 43% respectively from one year ago.

As mentioned above, YTD MLS® single family home sales remain strong at the upper end of the market but those segments are starting to slow as well, see chart below.

YTD MLS® single family home sales are down in every local municipality as follows: Clearview Twp -41%, Grey Highlands -43%, Meaford -28%, Blue Mountains -18%,  Collingwood -23% & Wasaga Beach  -35% from the first 6 months of 2021.  New home sales which are typically done by developer’s salespersons outside of the MLS® System are taking up some of the slack resulting from low levels of housing inventory relative to demand.

While real estate activity historically gains strength in the spring leading into the summer, this year has shown otherwise.  With rising interest & inflation rates, a looming recession and the reappearance of property price reductions regularly being posted in the MLS ® System, it’s no longer a “Seller’s” market. Contact me for expert advice as to how you can best navigate in today’s shifting market. rcrouch@sothebysrealty.ca