Throughout 2020 & 2021, luxury home & condominium sales, those priced over $1 million played a dominant role in driving MLS® sales activity across the Southern Georgian Bay region.  As with the market overall, luxury property sales softened in 2022 and declined further in 2023.

NOTE: Areas covered in this report are Clearview Township, Collingwood, Grey Highlands,  Municipality of Meaford, the Blue Mountains and Wasaga Beach.

MLS® sales of luxury properties in the 4th Quarter of 2023 totaled 64 properties, 11% fewer than 72 sales reported in the 4th Quarter of 2022.  Sales in December alone while only 12 units reflected at 63% decline year over year.

As shown in the following charts, luxury home sales in terms of both units sold & dollar volume started a sharp decline back in March 2022 & continued on that path through May 2023.  Luxury home sales June through September 2023 rebounded with 164 sales compared to 117 in the same period last year an increase of 40% only to decline significantly in the 4th Quarter of 2023, see chart below.

Monthly Luxury Property Sales 2022 versus 2023 in Units

4th Quarter sales volume of $86.7 million was $38.5 million (31%) less than $125.3 million in the 4th Quarter of 2022.

Monthly Luxury Property Sales 2022 versus 2023 in Dollars

Total 2023 MLS® luxury sales of 369 properties over $1 million were 155 less (30%) than 524 sales reported in 2022 & 119 units (24%) fewer than 488 sales in 2021

5 Year History of Luxury Property Sales in Units

MLS® luxury home sales in 2023 totaled $553.9 million compared to $830.4 million in 2022, a decrease of 33% and similar to the decrease from 2021 unit sales, dollar sales in 2023 were also down 24% from 2021.

5 Year History of Luxury Property Sales in Dollars

The largest segment of the luxury property market in the Southern Georgian Bay area in terms of price is the $1 to $1.5 million range representing 67% of the overall luxury property market relative to the number of units sold.  To the end of 2023, sales in the various segments of the luxury market were down anywhere from 16% to 61% versus 2022.  While sales were down, the inventory of luxury properties listed for sale on the MLS® System increased significantly.

 

2023 Luxury Property Sales by Price Range in Units

2023 Luxury Property Sales by Price Range in Dollars

The Blue Mountains & Collingwood remain the key locations of choice for luxury home Buyers with a combined market share of 62% in 2023, Wasaga Beach comes in second at 15%, Municipality of Meaford 7%, Clearview Township 11% & Grey Highlands 5% (all % rounded), see charts below.

2023 Luxury Property Sales by Area in Units

 

2023 Luxury Property Sales by Area in Dollars

 

2023 Luxury Property Sales by Area as Percentage of Market Share

Over the past 5 years (2019 thru 2023) the overall median MLS ® sale price for luxury properties across the six municipalities covered in this report have consistently run between just over $1.3 to just under $1.4 million, see chart below.

5 Year History Luxury Property Median Sale Prices

Notwithstanding the overall median sale price shown in the chart above, median sale prices are both higher and lower in the various  municipalities.  Based on 2023 MLS® sales, the Blue Mountains has the highest “median” sale price for luxury properties sold at $1.494 million followed by Clearview Township & the Municipality of Meaford at $1.449 & $1.424 million respectively.  At the lower end of the spectrum are Wasaga Beach and Collingwood where the median MLS® sale prices in 2023 were slightly above $1.250 million as shown in the chart below.

2023 Luxury Property Median Sale Prices by Area

While the overall median MLS® sale price based on total sales has remained relatively constant over the past 5 years, prices did in fact come down on many properties that sold in 2023.  Arriving at “current market value” for any property needs to be done based on a thorough analysis of the property’s location, features, finishes including a review of comparable sales in your specific area.

As the market has contracted, days-on-market & days-of-inventory have been moving upwards.  As of January 15, 2024 there are 272 properties listed for sale over $1 million on the MLS® System of the Lakelands Association of REALTORS® compared to 178 listings in January 2023 an increase of 53%.

Current Number of Luxury Properties Listed on MLS® System

NOTE: This includes Clearview Township, Collingwood, Grey Highlands, Municipality of Meaford, the Blue Mountains and Wasaga Beach.

Based on the rate of sales in 2023, days of inventory are as follows in the various price segments:

  • $1.0 to $1.499 million    201 days
  • $1.5 to $1,999 million    309 days
  • $2.0 to $2.499 million    600 days
  • $2.5 to $2.999 million    462 days
  • $3.0 million +              1,065 days

Once you get over $2 million, based on the current level of inventory and using the rate of sales from 2023, selling a luxury property in the higher price segments of the market may take 1 to well over 2 years to sell based on the location and other factors.  Pricing and patience will be the most important factors for Sellers to consider when considering the sale of their property.

Days Inventory of Luxury Properties Listed on MLS® System

Summary Conclusion

During 2023 we saw a shift in the overall market with sales in all aspects of the Southern Georgian Bay real estate market down 16% & 6% in terms of MLS® dollar & unit sales respectively.  While property sales priced below $800,000 were up from 2022, sales over that price point particularly the luxury segment $1 million & higher were well below the prior year.  With inflation & higher mortgage rates, this trend is unlikely to change anytime soon.  Properties need to be correctly priced consistent with today’s market and even then,  Seller’s need to accept that it may take longer to attract a willing Buyer in order to complete a sale than it did back in 2020 and 2021

Luxury property prices & days-on-market can vary greatly across our region based on factors such as location, property size, water frontage & more.  Contact Me for a no obligation consultation & factual information about how today’s market impacts you.   Direct: 705-443-1037 or rcrouch@sothebysrealty.ca