For anyone that may be thinking of selling, buying or simply investing in a condominium in the Southern Georgian Bay area, the following is a summary of the key factors affecting that segment of our local real estate market in 2023 that you need to be aware of.

Sales Trend: MLS® condominium sales in the Southern Georgian Bay area have softened in 2023 as we experienced extremely robust demand and sale in the latter half of 2020, 2021, and into the early part of 2022.

Softening of Sales: Sales have since softened in 2023, largely due to higher interest rates for mortgages, inflationary pressures and more recently a number of geo political factors globally that has many questioning or uncertain about what the immediate future holds that may affect personal finances and overall spending..

YTD Sales: As of September 2023, year-to-date (YTD) MLS® condo sales stand at 262 units, which is 8% lower than the 285 units sold during the same period in 2022.

Dollar Volume: The YTD MLS® condo sales dollar volume in 2023 is $177.7 million, a 12% decrease compared to the $201.3 million in 2022. This is also a significant 40% decrease from the sales volume during the first nine months of 2021 ($116.0 million).

New Condo Impact: Sales of new condos made by developers are not done through the MLS® System hence their sales are not reflected in the statistics provided herein.  That being said, new condominium sales have not negatively impacted the re-sale condo market and in the long term are expected to drive prices higher over time.

Median Sale Price: The median MLS® sale price for condo units has been rising steadily due to the preference for larger units with garages, basements, and high-end finishes. In 2023, the YTD median price is $586,400, down from $608,700 in 2022, which was the highest median price in the previous five years.  Given the current rate of inflation, higher interest rates that affect the cost of borrowing money and various issues that are affecting the global economy right now including wars in the Ukraine and now the Middle East, increases in pricing across all segments on the real estate market may take some time.  In the meantime I predict we will continue to see some weaker sales and softer pricing until current market conditions improve.

Pricing by Location: Collingwood has the highest median MLS® sale price for condos, largely due to the presence of some of the area’s largest and most expensive units, including waterfront condos on the former Shipyards site as well as new units currently under construction.

Concentration of Sales: Condominium sales continue to be concentrated in the Blue Mountains and Collingwood, representing 88% of the market. Wasaga Beach accounts for just under 8% of total units sold through the MLS® System.

The chart below reflects a 5 year history of condominium sales in the six municipalities around the bottom of Georgian Bay each of which has seen the market fluctuate with unit sales down in 2023 versus what we saw in 2020 through 2022.

Price Segments: Condo sales in the $300,000 to $499,999 price segment are performing well, running 21% ahead of 2022. However, as is the case with single family homes, sales in the higher priced segments of the market have seen declines ranging from 10% to 20% compared to the previous year.

The data highlights the impact of economic factors like higher interest rates and inflation on the condo market, as well as the changing preferences of buyers for larger and higher-quality units. It’s important for real estate professionals such as myself to be keenly aware of these factors and to share this information with buyers, sellers and investors in the Southern Georgian Bay area to consider these trends when making decisions in the local condo market.

If you have any comments or questions with respect to the condo market or regarding real estate in general please do not hesitate to Contact Me for as no obligation, confidential consultation as to your needs and or objectives.  My direct line is 705-443-1037.