While MLS® sales across the Southern Georgian Bay area in July were up over July last year & we have now had 3 consecutive months of sales growth including May and June, I believe it’s too early to say the market has fully recovered from the recent slowdown that began back in early 2022.
MLS® dollar sales in July of $147.2 million were up $47.8 million from $99.9 million in July 2022, a healthy if not unexpected increase of 48%.
MLS® unit sales in July of 178 properties were up 58 units also 48% greater than in July last year when 120 MLS ® sales were reported.
MLS® dollar volume year-to-date (YTD) for 7 months through July of $974.50 million is $274.5 million or 21% less than this time last year and 51% below the first 7 months of 2021 indicating that we still have some distance to cover before a full recovery can be claimed.
July YTD MLS® unit sales total 1,137 properties down 10% from 1,268 unit sales a year ago but it does illustrate that some lost ground has in fact been recovered during the last 3 months.
NOTE: These results are based on total MLS® sales for residential, commercial properties & vacant land in Clearview, Collingwood, Grey Highlands, Municipality of Meaford, the Blue Mountains & Wasaga Beach.
While MLS® dollar & unit sales continue to run behind both 2022 & 2021, we are seeing an increase in MLS® listing activity from 2022. New MLS® listings in July totaled 449 properties up 22 units (5%) from 427 new listings in July 2022. As with sales overall, the number of new MLS® listings was also up from 1 year ago in both May & June.
YTD 2023 MLS® new listings of 3,061 units are now 247 (9%) more than the number of new MLS ® listings for the first 7 months of 2022, see chart below.
Currently there are 1,168 active MLS® listings in the 6 municipalities mentioned above up from 918 last year, an increase of 27% year over year. The current number of active MLS® listings in the area is the highest level of MLS® listed inventory we have seen since 2020.
Expired MLS ® listings at the end of July total 390 up slightly from 380 in June. Despite increased listing & sales activity May through July, the number of expired listings is up 5% YTD. While there are many reasons as to why a property doesn’t sell be it location, type, size, condition and more, everyone one of those is essentially a factor of price. In addition current market conditions including the economy, inflation and interest rates is also coming into play.
Lack of inventory can no longer be touted as the cause of reduced sales and or pricing. Demand remains softer, prices have come down, while mortgage rates have increased & properties are staying on the market longer prior to being SOLD especially those priced $800,000 & above.
The YTD MLS® median residential sale price is $732,800 compared to $845,300 a year ago a decline of 13%. The median sale price has been trending down due to fewer multiple offers, lower sale prices overall & significantly reduced sales activity above $1 million. These factors have all contributed to the decrease in the median MLS® price over the past 12 months.
The YTD MLS® residential list-to-sale price ratio is 96.9% down from 100.4% this time last year. Multiple offers have diminished significantly. Buyers are simply not willing or able to pay above list price due to increased mortgage rates & lenders have become increasingly cautious with mortgage approvals.
In a balanced market the list-to-sale price ratio in our area has typically been in the 95% to 97% range & we appear to be trending back to those historical list-to-sale price dynamics.
YTD 2023 MLS® single family home sales total 789 units, 6% fewer from 841 homes sold this time last year. Condo sales of 201 units are down 11% from 225 in 2022 while vacant land sales of 41 properties are down 61% largely due to a lack of land & lots available for sale.
NOTE: The statistics contained herein do not include the sale of new homes & condominiums made outside of the MLS ® system by builders and or developers own sales staff nor do they include full time or seasonal rentals.
While MLS® single family home sales priced from $300,000 to $799,999 are up anywhere from 54 to 133% over 2022 sales, properties priced $800,000 & higher remain well below 2022 & are currently running 27% to 136% below this time last year, see chart below. For details about the high-end home and condominium market, those price $1 million and higher see my 2nd Quarter 2023 Luxury Properties Markey Report.
In July, the median days-on-market (DOM) for residential sales was 47 days. Overall DOM for the first 7 months of 2023 is 54 days whereas a year ago it was just 15 days.
Other than in Wasaga Beach where sales are up 11% YTD, MLS® single family home sales are down from 2022 in every other local municipality: Clearview Twp -5%, Grey Highlands -15%, Meaford -9%, Blue Mountains -29%, Collingwood -10%.
NOTE: Single family home sales in the Blue Mountains are down the most as that municipality has the largest market share of sales over $1 million and those price segments are experiencing the biggest decline in 2023.
As the summer progresses through August and into the fall it will be interesting to see if the upturn in sales & listing activity that we have seen May through July continues.
As always I welcome your comments or questions, please feel free to Contact Me at any time.