Real estate activity across Southern Georgian Bay in terms of dollar volume for the first two months of 2024 is running roughly at par with the first two months of 2023.

MLS® dollar volume in February of $97.7 million was down just $931,105 (.9%) from $96.9 million in February 2023.  By comparison, February’s sales were down by $93.8 million (49%) from February 2022 before the market started to soften.

Conversely, MLS® unit sales in February of 127 properties were 19 units (18%) more than 108 sales in February 2023 yet well below 183 sales reported in February 2022.

Total Year-to-Date (YTD) MLS® dollar volume is $176.9 million compared to $178.5 million last year, a decrease of $2.7 million (1.5%).  It is worth noting that YTD MLS® sales remain $192.6 million or 52% below $368.3 million in sales during the first two months of 2022.  Clearly the market remains much softer than what we experienced two years ago.

New MLS® listings in February totaled 376 properties up 107 units (40%) from 269 new listings in February 2023.  YTD the number of new MLS listings total 674 which is an increase of 115 units (20%) from 559 new MLS® listings last year.

NOTE: As previously stated, “lack of inventory” can no longer be used as the cause of weaker MLS® sales in this area.  The inventory of homes and condominiums listed for sale on the MLS® System has been on the rise for several months.

Current active MLS® listings in the area total 1,000 properties up 42% from 702 last year and 225% more than 208 active listings in February 2022.  The increase in listing activity may stem from some Sellers deciding to sell if faced with mortgage renewals at today’s much higher rates.  This can clearly apply in our market with secondary property owners that may find it increasingly difficult to carry two or more properties at today’s higher mortgage rates.

Expired MLS® listings at the end of February total 286 properties an increase of units 53 or 34% more than in February 2023.  The current number of expired listings is the highest level we have seen since February 2015 when the number of expired listings stood at 288 properties just 2 units more than now.

While the increase in expired listings can be partially attributed to fewer sales, some properties are clearly “overpriced” in today’s market.  Either some Sellers haven’t accepted the reality of today’s shifting market, or they are still hopeful of attracting an unsuspecting or misinformed Buyer(s) that is willing or able to overpay.

NOTE:  These results are based on total MLS® sales for residential, commercial properties & vacant land in Clearview,                                   Collingwood, Grey Highlands, Municipality of Meaford, the Blue Mountains & Wasaga Beach. 

February YTD MLS® single family home sales total 160 units, 17% more than 137 homes sold in the first two months of 2023.  Condo sales of 37 units are just 3 more than 34 in 2023 while vacant land sales of 11 properties are up from 9 sales last year.

 NOTE:  The statistics contained herein do not include the sale of new homes and  condominiums made outside of the MLS ® system by builders and or developers own sales staff nor do they include full time or seasonal rentals.

NOTE:  The statistics contained herein do not include the sale of new homes and condominiums made outside of the MLS ®                        system by builders and or developers own sales staff nor do they include full time or seasonal rentals.

As of February, the 2024 MLS® median residential sale price is $681,250 compared to $725,625 a year ago a decline of 7%.  The median sale price has been trending down due to lower sale prices overall & significantly reduced sales activity above $1 million.  These factors have contributed to the median MLS® sale price decrease over the past 12 to 18 months.  The YTD median MLS® sale price at this time in 2022 was $918,750 which was driven by a high level of sales in the upper price segments of the market.

The 2024 YTD average residential Days-On-Market (DOM) is 58 days whereas in 2023 it was 56 days.  This is significantly higher versus the average DOM of 8 days back in 2022.  Properties of all types and prices are generally taking longer to sell especially those price at the upper end.

The 2024 MLS® residential list-to-sale price ratio is 96.5% up slightly from 96.0% in 2023 but well below 103.2% in 2022. Multiple offers which previously drove sale prices over their respective asking price have all but vanished.  In a balanced market the list-to-sale price ratio in our area has typically ranged from 95% to 97% +/- hence we are simply trending back to this ratio along with other historic market dynamics.

2024 MLS® single family home sales priced from $300,000 to $500,000 are up 50% while the sales of homes priced $800,000 to $1 million are up 7%.  Sales of those properties priced $1.0 to $2.5 million are up from 14% to 40%.  On thew other hand, sales of homes over $2.5 million are down 70% to 100% from a year ago.  See chart below.

YTD MLS® single family home sales by municipality are as follows: Collingwood up 7%, Clearview Twp up 50%, Meaford & the Blue Mountains are unchanged, Grey Highlands up 8% with Wasaga Beach up 29%

NOTE: Single family home sales in the Blue Mountains are down the most as that municipality has the largest market share of sales over $1 million & those price segments are experiencing the biggest decline in 2023.

Heading into 2024 & looking at all key data, I forecast we may continue to see a modest increase in MLS® sales across some segments of the market especially at the lower end ie: $300,000 to $800,000.  Pricing will remain key to attracting potential Buyers & satisfying lenders for those purchasers that need financing.

As always I welcome you comments and or questions.  Please fell free to Contact Me and I would welcome the opportunity to schedule a no obligation consultation of your selling and or buying needs on 2024.