After the unprecedented, robust real estate market we saw in most area across Canada in 2020 and 2021, the market has clearly shifted to one of balance thereby leveling the playing field for Buyers and Sellers alike.  Below, is what you need to know in order to navigate today’s changing real estate environment.

At the close of 2024, the real estate market across Southern Georgian Bay is showing encouraging signs of recovery. Interest rate cuts in the latter half of the year appear to have reignited Buyer activity, with sales from September through December surpassing those of 2023. Let’s dive into the numbers to see how the market is performing across our communities, including Clearview Township, Collingwood, Grey Highlands, the Municipality of Meaford, the Blue Mountains, and Wasaga Beach, and what we might expect to see in 2025.

December Brings Year-End Momentum

December’s MLS® sales continue to tell a positive story. The dollar volume for the month was $96.2 million, up 30% from December 2023, and $14.0 million higher than December 2022. Unit sales also saw a boost, with 115 properties sold, 22% more than the 94 units sold last year and 20 more than in December 2022.

While annual MLS® dollar volume in 2024 dipped slightly to $1.51 billion, down 2% from $1.54 billion in 2023, this is a considerable improvement from what results were indicating for 2024 based on results in the first half of the year .

A Closer Look at Listings and Inventory

2024 brought an increase in new MLS® listings, with 5,569 properties hitting the market, an 8% rise over 2023. This in itself no doubt played a role in boosting sales with Buyers having more choices prompting them to step away from the sideline in order to make a purchase.  The number of active MLS® listings reached a level not seen since 2015, with 1,306 properties listed for sale at year-end, up 30% from 2023. This surge appears to be partially driven by higher mortgage renewal rates, which are making affordability more challenging for some homeowners who purchased during the 2020-2021 market boom and many now be facing a mortgage renewal they cannot afford.

Expired listings also climbed in 2024, to 765 units at year end, a 21% increase over 2023, highlighting a key challenge for Sellers in today’s market: pricing.  Many properties that fail to sell are simply overpriced. After seeing little to almost no price reductions in the MLS® System during 2020 and 2021 when sales were at their highest when properties were selling for over their respective asking prices, it is now common to see 40 to 50 price reductions weekly on the MLS® System.  This is a clear indication that realistic pricing is more important than ever if Sellers wish to or need to secure a sale.

Trends by Property Type

Single-family home sales held steady in 2024, with 1,247 units sold, up 2% from 2023. Vacant land sales rose 7%, while condominium sales saw a 15% decline, reflecting shifting Buyer preferences.

In some municipalities, single-family home sales saw notable increases with Collingwood (+7%), Grey Highlands (+32%), and the Blue Mountains (+18%), while Wasaga Beach experienced a 13% decline while sales in Clearview Township were down just under 3%. See chart below.

The median sale price for residential properties annualized for the year was $715,200, down 2% from $726,900 in 2023 and 9% lower than the median price of $783,500 at the end of 2022. This decline reflects a slowdown in sales overall as well as fewer ales in the upper price segments of the market, those priced above $800,000.

Interestingly, there’s been a surge in luxury home sales in the $2.0–$2.499 million range, which are up 55% compared to 2023—an encouraging sign of confidence among Buyers in the upper end of the market. See chart below.

What to Expect in 2025

With balanced market conditions, ample inventory, and reduced mortgage rates, 2025 may offer new opportunities for both Buyers and Sellers. Buyers clearly have more choices than they’ve had in years.  We can’t however ignore the fact that even with recent interest reductions, mortgage financing is still significantly higher than it was two to three years ago. Further, as I covered in a prior post, Canadians have the unfortunate distinction of being near the top of the global list in terms of consumer debt so further borrowing power is limited.

In order to succeed in selling their home or other property, Sellers must adopt a strategic and realistic approach to their asking/listed price.  Pricing a property based on what you want or need will not work in today’s market and the current frequency of price reductions in the MLS® System reflects that.  With inventory of properties for sale on the MLS® System the highest we have seen in 10 years and when lenders are scrutinizing mortgage applications more carefully, Buyers are not willing nor can they overpay for a home as they did back in 2020 and 2021.  In short, those days are over.

The list-to-sale price ratio of 96.6% aligns with the historic norm of falling in the 95% to 97% range with the chart below indicating a steady decrease starting in 2022.  Simply put, we are returning to more traditional market dynamics.

The Big Picture

Real estate has always been cyclical, and the past couple of years have been anything but typical. The COVID 19 pandemic-driven shift of working from home coupled with historically low interest rates, created a unique market boom.  Now, as we return to more sustainable conditions, interest rate cuts will play a key role in a steady recovery through 2025 and beyond provided that the inflation rate continues to drop and the economy shows positive growth all of which will serve to restore consumer confidence and spending.

If you’re considering buying or selling, navigating today’s market requires expert guidance and a clear understanding of what is taking place.  As a Market Value Appraiser (MVA) with over 20 years of experience in Southern Georgian Bay, I’m here to help you achieve your real estate goals and objectives.  What matters to you matters to me.  That being said, never has it been more important to make sound decisions based on timely and accurate market data and my hope is this post and the statistics I have provided herein have helped you to understand that.

Let’s start with a no-obligation consultation. Reach out to me at rcrouch@sothebysrealty.ca or call 705-443-1037. Together, I can you make the most of this dynamic and often challenging market.

NOTE: The author is a Broker, Market Value Appraiser-Residential with Sotheby’s International Realty Canada and a Past President (2008) of the Lakeland’s Association of REALTORS®.