Real estate activity for the first two months of 2019 across the Southern Georgina Bay region has shown an improvement from one year ago with stronger sales in specific segments of the market.

While year-to-date MLS® dollar sales have increased significantly (22%) over the first two months of 2018, unit sales remain relatively weak. Through the end of February MLS® unit sales total 208 individual properties, 10 units more or just 5% above last year. The chart belowshows year-to-date 2019 versus 2018 sales across the various price segments of the market with increases in the upper price ranges most notably $500,000 to $799,999 and from $1.5 million and higher. The key segment of the market wherein there is the greatest demand is down 11% from one year ago with 85 sales so far in 2019 compared to 96 last year.
Some of the current weakness in sales is seasonal in nature. Sales start to ramp up in January following the end of the holiday season and typically peak April through June when properties start to look their best during the spring and early summer weather. Inventory levels of properties listed for sale on the MLS® system also ramp up during this period, potential buyers have more to choose from but competition among sellers is also stronger. Overall we experienced a general shortfall of inventory listed for sale on our local MLS® in 2016 through to early 2018 at which time the market started to show signs of slowing down.
While that situation exists in some price segments of the market today, it is not universal across the region. As of this report, the amount of inventory listed for sale in the various price segments varies greatly. The following is a summary of residential properties listed for sale by price range and the “months of inventory” shown is based on the current rate of sales that we have experienced in these price segments over the past year.
Price Range Current # of Active Listings Months of Inventory
Under $300,000 48 1.8
$300,000 to $499,999 152 2.1
$500,000 to $799,999 182 4.8
$800,000 to $999,999 54 7.0
$1.000 to $1.499 Million 48 8.7
$1.500 to $1.999 Million 32 29.9
$2 Million + 29 25.0
What does this mean to sellers and buyers? While year-to-date residential sales between $500,000 to $799,999 are up 68% from a year ago, there is currently well over 4 months worth of inventory listed for sale to choose from. Similarly, sales in the $1.5 to $1.9 million dollar range are 10 times greater than in the first two months of 2018 yet with 32 active MLS® listings that is almost 30 months worth of inventory while properties listed for sale priced above $2 million represents 25 months of inventory.
The level of MLS® listed inventory overall however is showing signs of trending upwards which is encouraging for those looking to buy especially in the lower price segments. New MLS® residential listings in January were up 8.6% from one year ago and totalled 190 units. New listing activity then slipped in February totalling 192 properties down 10.7% from 215 new listings that came to market in February of last year. There is no question that we have had a harsh winter with adverse snowfalls and bad driving conditions, hardly ideal conditions for buyers to view properties for sale and many sellers have held off listing their home until conditions improve with the arrival of spring. Many sellers may also be fearful that they have perhaps missed the window of opportunity to maximize the sale price of their home or condominium. I have in fact had clients of my own who live in the Greater Toronto Area state that selling their home now will net them a lower price than 12 months ago.


Summary

As with other facets of our profession I watch our MLS® system activity closely on a daily basis and I will continue to report on meaningful data that is applicable to the real estate market in our area throughout the year. In the meantime if you have any questions please feel free to contact me at any time. A Free PDF copy of this Market Report and others is available on my website at: www.rickcrouch.realtor.