With the close of June, the Southern Georgian Bay real estate market has experienced three consecutive months of declining MLS® sales in both dollar and unit volume.  Despite Canada’s inflation rate remaining stable in May, the real estate market may continue to face challenges through the second half of 2024 unless there is a significant reduction in inflation and further interest rate cuts.

NOTE: Results shared in the report are based on total MLS® sales for residential, commercial properties & vacant land in Clearview, Collingwood, Grey Highlands, Municipality of Meaford, the Blue Mountains and Wasaga Beach. 

Key Market Insights

  • MLS® Dollar Volume: June 2024 saw $125.3 million in sales, a significant drop of 38% from June 2023’s $201.4 million.

  • MLS® Unit Sales: 161 properties were sold in June 2024, down 28% from 223 units in June 2023.
  • YTD MLS® Unit Sales: 869 properties in 2024, a decrease of 9% from 958 units sold in the first half of 2023.

  • Year-to-Date (YTD) MLS® Dollar Volume: $730.6 million in 2024, down 12% from $826.5 million in 2023 and $409.3 million (36%) below $1.140 billion in 2022

Market Dynamics

The market has transitioned into a Buyer’s market, with inventory levels rising and sales activity slowing. In June 2024, new MLS® listings totaled 510 properties, a 16% decrease from 610 listings in June 2023. However, the YTD new listings have increased by 12%, reaching 2,933 new listings compared to 2,614 last year.  Currently, there are 1,584 active MLS® listings, the highest level of inventory since 2016.

Price Adjustments and Expired Listings

With an increase in expired listings 404 properties in June 2024, up 6% from 380 last year t’s clear that some  properties are overpriced in today’s market.  Buyers now have ample choices and with mortgage lenders (banks) much more cautious this has prompted regular price reductions from sellers.

Area-Specific Trends

YTD single family home sales vary across the six municipalities around the southern Georgian Bay region as follows:

  • Clearview Township: Down 16%
  • Collingwood: Down 7%
  • Grey Highlands: Up 9%
  • Municipality of Meaford: Up 10%
  • Blue Mountains: Down 15%
  • Wasaga Beach: Down 14%

Property Type Performance

  • Single Family Homes: 615 units sold in the first six months of 2024, a 7% decrease from 663 units in 2023.
  • Condo Sales: 129 units sold, down 25% from 171 units in 2023.
  • Vacant Land Sales: 55 properties sold, a 72% increase from 32 sales last year.

Market Value Trends

The median residential sale price in 2024 is $718,300, a slight decline from $730,775 in 2023.  The current list-to-sale price ratio is 96.9%, reflecting a return to more balanced market conditions, compared to the peak of 101.8% in 2021.

Understanding the Cyclical Market

Real estate markets are inherently cyclical.  The recent shift from a high-demand, low-supply market driven by COVID-19 and record-low interest rates is unprecedented.  Whether you are selling or buying, as a Market Value Appraiser (MVA) for residential properties, let my expertise provide you with an accurate assessment of your property’s worth in today’s shifting market.

Determining your property’s value is crucial in attracting buyers in the current market.  As a buyer, no one wants to overpay especially in a changing market where both demand and pricing have softened.  For a no-obligation valuation or to discuss your real estate needs confidentially, contact me at rcrouch@sothebysrealty.ca or 705-443-1037.

Stay informed with the latest market insights and make the best decisions for your real estate investments in Southern Georgian Bay.

Note: This blog post is not intended to solicit properties already listed for sale or to encourage sellers to break their current listing contract with any other real estate Brokerage.

The author is a Broker, Market Value Appraiser-Residential with Sotheby’s International Realty Canada and a Past President (2008) of the Lakeland’s Association of REALTORS®.