As we head toward the close of 2024, the real estate market in Southern Georgian Bay shows signs of renewed activity following several months of slowed sales. After a five-month stretch of decreased market activity from April through August, recent interest rate cuts appear to have invigorated real estate sales across the area, particularly in September and October. Here’s a detailed look at what’s happening in the Southern Georgian Bay real estate market, covering Clearview, Collingwood, Grey Highlands, the Municipality of Meaford, the Blue Mountains, and Wasaga Beach.
Market Highlights: Increased MLS® Dollar Volume and Unit Sales
In October, the MLS® dollar volume for Southern Georgian Bay reached $158.8 million, marking a significant increase of $45.4 million (or 40%) from $113 million in October 2023. This October figure also surpasses that of 2022 by $43.4 million, showing renewed strength in market demand.
Additionally, October saw a total of 174 properties sold, a 26% increase from the 138 properties sold during the same month last year and 35 more than in October 2022.
Year-to-Date Trends: Bridging the Gap from 2023 and 2022
Though year-to-date (YTD) MLS® dollar volume sits at $1.266 billion, reflecting a slight 7% decrease compared to last year’s $1.356 billion, the gap with prior years has been gradually closing. As of October, YTD MLS® sales volume is $331.9 million lower than in 2022, but the trajectory indicates a possible return to more consistent activity levels.
In terms of units, 1,501 properties have been sold YTD, representing a 6% decline from the 1,601 units sold in the first ten months of 2023. These numbers underscore a market that, while below peak pandemic-driven highs, is stabilizing.
Inventory Levels: Highest Since 2015
With new MLS® listings up by 3% over last October to a total of 506 properties, Southern Georgian Bay is seeing the highest level of inventory since 2015. YTD listings also climbed, with 4,980 new listings posted in 2024, an 8% increase compared to last year.
The area now has 1,554 active MLS® listings across all property types (excluding leases), a 21% rise from the 1,284 listings at this time last year. The increase in available properties presents ample choices for Buyers, making it crucial for Sellers to price their properties competitively to attract interest and secure a sale.
Expired Listings and Price Reductions
October saw 581 expired MLS® listings, a 2% increase over last year. The rise in expired listings can partially be attributed to properties that remain unsold due to being “overpriced” in today’s market, with 40 to 50 price reductions occurring weekly across the MLS® System.
This trend underscores the importance of setting realistic prices that align with Buyer expectations and current market dynamics, especially with the shift toward a Buyer’s market.
Specific Property Type Sales: Single-Family Homes, Condos, and Land
Here’s how YTD sales by property type stack up:
- Single-Family Homes: Sales totaled 1,060 units, a 3% decrease from the 1,092 homes sold by this time in 2023.
- Condos: Sales of 226 units are down 20% from last year.
- Vacant Land: Sales of vacant lots increased by 15%, with 82 properties sold compared to 71 last year.
By Municipality: Sales Trends Across Southern Georgian Bay
The performance in single-family home sales varies across municipalities as follows:
- Clearview Township: Sales down by 14%
- Collingwood: Sales up by 3%
- Grey Highlands: Sales up by 34%
- Municipality of Meaford: Sales up by 4%
- Blue Mountains: Sales up by 15%
- Wasaga Beach: Sales down by 7%
2024 MLS® single family home sales priced $500,000 to $1,999,999 are down between 3% to 10% from last year. YTD we have seen a surge in sales in the $2.0 to $2.499 million range which are up 63% YTD, see chart below. For those that are interested and if it applies to you, the inventory of homes and condominiums listed for in the various price segments over $1 million is particularly high. See my 3rd Quarter Luxury Properties Market Report for details.
Median® MLS Residential Sale Price
The median MLS® sale price for residential properties is down 2% to $718,000, compared to $735,000 last year and $807,600 in 2022. This gradual decline is largely due to reduced sales in higher price segments above $1 million as noted above.
List-to-Sale Price Ratio and Buyer Dynamics
The MLS® list-to-sale price ratio for residential properties in Southern Georgian Bay stands at 96.8% YTD, nearly consistent with last year but down from 99.1% in 2022 and 100.9% in 2021. This return to a more balanced market reduces the pressure of multiple offers and over-asking price bids, allowing Buyers more leverage.
Interest Rate Cuts and Future Market Outlook
The recent interest rate cuts could help stimulate further recovery in the Southern Georgian Bay real estate market, but a full rebound may take time. Realistic pricing that meets both Buyer and lender expectations will be critical for Sellers looking to close deals in this evolving landscape.
As a Market Value Appraiser (MVA) with specialized expertise in residential properties, I am here to offer you an accurate, no-obligation assessment of your property’s current market value. Whether you’re considering buying, selling, or simply want to understand your home’s position in today’s market, feel free to reach out to me at rcrouch@sothebysrealty.ca or 705-443-1037.
Note: This blog post is not intended to solicit properties already listed for sale or to encourage sellers to break their current listing contract with any other real estate Brokerage.
The author is a Broker, Market Value Appraiser-Residential with Sotheby’s International Realty Canada and a Past President (2008) of the Lakeland’s Association of REALTORS®.