The end of May marked 3 consecutive months of declining real estate sales activity not only around Southern Georgian Bay but in other markets across Canada as well. This clearly indicates the market has changed but by no means has the sky fallen.
MLS® dollar sales in May of $168.9 million were $100.3 million less than the $269.2 million sales reported in May 2021.
Year-to-date (YTD) total MLS® dollar volume through the end of May of $1.011 billion is $169.6 million (14%) below $1.171 billion from 1 year ago.
MLS® unit sales in May of 179 properties are down 43% from 315 in May 2021, resulting in total YTD MLS® sales of 1,006 properties as being down 30% from 1,438 MLS® sales reported during the same 5 months of last year.
NOTE: These results are based on total MLS® sales for residential and commercial properties and vacant land in Clearview, Collingwood, Grey Highlands, Municipality of Meaford, the Blue Mountains and Wasaga Beach.
New MLS® listings in May totalled 529 versus 492 in May 2021. For the year, MLS® listings in 2022 total 1,900 properties which is 5% less from last year but with increased listings in May alone, I suspect we will see listing activity increase as the market continues to shift to a more balanced state .
As stated above, MLS ® unit sales remain below the prior year with MLS ® dollar volume continuing to be bolstered by robust sales in the higher end price segments of the market. Year-to-date MLS® single family home sales are very strong at the upper end of the market staring at $800,000 and above. Home sales in these segments are up substantially which has a profound impact on the median sale price and total dollar volume of sales.
YTD MLS® single family sales total 665 down 26% from 902 homes sold last year, condo sales of 184 units are down 36% while vacant land sales of 87 are down 42% from one year ago. While the low inventory of properties listed on the MLS® System continue to be a factor, it would be naive to think that rising mortgage rates, high inflation and a looming recession are not playing a key role in consumers real estate buying and selling decisions.
NOTE: The statistics contained herein do not include the sale of new homes and condominiums made outside of the MLS ® system by builders and or developers and their own sales staff nor do they include full time or seasonal rentals.
The YTD list-to-sale price ratio in May was 101.9%. The list-to-sale price ratio had been declining from a high of 102.7% back in April 2021 and I expect this trend continue as we shift to a balanced market with significantly fewer multiple offers etc.
The median residential price in May was $850,000 down from $855,000 in April yet is 13% higher than May 2021. See chart below. As with sales, I fully expect to see the median sale price drop in the months ahead.
YTD MLS® single family home sales are down in every local municipality: Clearview Twp -37%, Grey Highlands -37%, Meaford -28%, Blue Mountains -13%, Collingwood -16% & Wasaga Beach -29% from the first 5 months of 2021.
While real estate activity historically gains speed in the spring, this year has shown otherwise. With rising interest & inflation rates, a looming recession and a reappearance of property price reductions regularly being posted in the MLS ® System, it’s no longer a “Seller’s” market. That’s not to suggest that it will become a Buyer’s market any time soon with properties getting sold for fire sale prices. Rather, it is my opinion based on what the numbers are telling me and from prior experience, we will see home prices return to a more realistic level that should never have been eclipsed as we have seen over the past couple of years, driven by low mortgage rates and a belief that prices would continue to skyrocket in the year ahead.
How long this trend lingers is anyone’s guess but I believe that the current softening we have seen March through May is not a short term trend that will disappear in a month or two as Donald Trump claimed COVID 19 would.
Contact me for expert advice as to how you can best navigate in today’s shifting market, firstname.lastname@example.org or directly anytime at 705-443-1037.