In What’s Causing Lower Water Levels in Lakes Michigan, Huron, and Georgian Bay? – Part 1of this blog I shared some history and my own personal experience with respect to the everchanging water levels in Lakes Michigan and Huron which includes Georgian Bay.
My views on this subject are based not just on opinion, rather they come from decades of experience as a cottage owner off Lake Huron on Manitoulin Island as well as that of a boater that has travelled around much of Georgian Bay and the North Channel. My knowledge has also allowed me to assist my clients as a real estate Broker listing and selling waterfront properties in the Southern Georgian Bay area. In Part 2 of the blog I will share what impact the current declining water level in these bodies of water means from an environmental standpoint as well as the affect it can have on waterfront property owners for both personal recreational and business purposes. From a real estate perspective, the issue of alternating water levels now further impacted by climate change may also have am affect on waterfront property pricing depending on what the future brings.
Impacts of Lower Water Levels
- Impact on Shoreline Communities: Lower water levels can affect recreational boating, swimming areas, and fishing, as well as exposed previously submerged land.
Residential property owners on or near the shoreline are now in 2024 noticing extended beaches or lower waterfront access. As a cottage owner, this is certainly the case for myself and in Part 1 of this blog I shared both current and past photos of my property both at high and low water levels. Like many cottage owners, we remove our dock (pictured here) in the fall and reinstall it in the spring in order to protect it from ice damage. It has an aluminum framework, is over 50 feet in length and 6 feet wide with removable wood decking and adjustable legs. This design allows us to position it further out in the water or closer to shore depending on the level of water in any given year as well as the ability to raise and lower it as needed.
Not everyone has that flexibility, especially those with cottages accessed by boat only on one of the 30,000 islands along the eastern shore of Georgian Bay. Many of those properties have fixed docks built on cribs or pilings which are commonly found on docks and for boathouses around the Muskoka Lakes. A lower water level in Georgian Bay and the lakes adjacent to it results in shallower water access by boat and during the period of low water in 2012/2013, some cottage owners reported having limited or no access via water to their property at all.
From an enjoyment and safety standpoint, low water impacts not just boat access to a property but also safety. Areas of shallow water increase and with that, shoals and other underwater hazards not present during periods of high water become an issue. During the period of low water, marinas were reporting an increase in boat repairs for broken propellers and other damages. Having boated myself the up eastern side of Georgina Bay through the 30,000 islands north to Killarney then west in the North Channel and around Manitoulin Island, I know first hand the importance of watching both the paper charts and my boat’s chartplotter. The photo below is a portion of northern Georgian Bay I took during a boat trip in 2022. It clearly illustrates the challenges of navigating these waters even at the best of times and the water had dropped significantly since then.
Northern Georgian Bay Summer 2022
From a recreational perspective, boating is not the only element of enjoyment affected by low water levels. Swimming and beach use was significantly impacted. In places like Wasaga Beach, it became a long walk out through the water to get to a depth where swimming without touching bottom was possible.
There are numerous marinas located just around Georgian Bay alone, many privately owned while others are owned and operated by municipalities including Collingwood, Thornbury, Meaford and elsewhere. The low water levels affect cannot only affect access but also dockage. Sailboats with keels typically need six to 7 feet of water as do some large power cruisers. During the periods of low water such as what we experienced in 2012/2013 it rendered docks in some marinas as being unusable without dredging.
Conversely in the years of high water back in the later 1980’s, many waterfront property owners spent thousands of dollars building break walls to protect their property from waves and erosion. The same was happening again in 2019 and 2020, I know of one residential property that sustained damage requiring $250,000 to $300,000 in repairs. The Town of Collingwood alone spent a consider amount in shoreline repairs at Sunset Point park.
- Ecosystem Changes: Lower water levels affects habitats for fish and wildlife, including wetlands, which rely on a delicate balance of the water level. Changing lake levels can disrupt these ecosystems, wetlands become unusually dry impacting the diversity and health of plant and animal life in and around the lakes.
For those that like to fish, we have our own favourite places to cast a line where successful results has always been achieved. A significant drop in the level of water will often affect the ability to reach those “hotspots” and even if we do, the fish may have been forced out into deeper water to spawn and or to search for their own source of food.
In addition to fish, other creatures also inhabit both the lakes and their surrounding wetlands. Beaver, muskrats, turtles, ducks, loons, herons and other assorted wildlife also live and depend on a water based environment to live and in fact survive. The photo below taken earlier this month on Manitoulin Island, shows a small bay where the receding water has exposed more shoreline than 2 years ago then underwater. Last winter this area had no ice coverage leaving the water open to evaporation.
Manitoulin Island November 2024
What’s Next?
- Unpredictability Ahead: Given the ongoing effects of climate change, water levels in the Great Lakes may well fluctuate more in the coming years. Some years might see a rebound with higher rainfall, more snow or cooler temperatures, while other weather changes may bring further declines. Look at the recent storms and flooding we have seen in some of the southern U.S. states or consider the flooding in Valencia, Spain earlier this fall that received a year of rainfall in one day.
There is a fixed amount of water on the planet, it just keeps moving around in natural “seasonal” not “annual” cycles, it always has and always will. That being said, climate change is clearly going to play a role in both the rate and amount of change that we see. In our case water that gets absorbed into the atmosphere often falls somewhere outside our watershed in the form of rain and or snow. At the same time some of the recent storms we have seen in the central and eastern parts of Canada originated in the Gulf of Mexico.
- Sustainable Practices: Residents and communities can prepare by adopting sustainable water management practices, such as protecting wetlands from development and reducing water usage, to help offset some of the natural and human-driven impacts on lake levels.
Waterfront and Water Access Property Pricing
From a real estate prospective, it is not hard to see how changing water levels can affect waterfront property prices. In the Southern Georgian Bay area, waterfront homes and cottage are unlike those elsewhere. The waters in this area are often shallow quite a distance out from shore. This is certainly the case from Thornbury to Collingwood continuing along the shoreline to Wasaga Beach and further. At the same time, Georgian Bay is like a small inland sea. It can be extremely rough at times with waves easily a metre in height and larger. In most cases you do not have a dock where you can keep a boat at your door.
It’s not hard to see how changing water levels can affect the use of a waterfront property which in turns can have an impact on pricing. As seen in the photo below, some property owners in the area have attempted to do shoreline improvements to make their waterfrontage more usable and enjoyable. That is a costly endeavour, one that requires design work by a qualified engineer as well as multiple permits from municipal, provincial and federal authorities. In addition, approval is in many cases needed from an Indigenous group(s) that may have authority over the water and or fishing rights.
Georgian Bay Shoreline in The Blue Mountains
In Summary
The reduction in water levels across Lakes Michigan, Huron, and Georgian Bay is caused by a mix of natural weather patterns, increased evaporation due to warming, reduced ice cover, and changing outflow dynamics. While these changes can be complex, understanding the causes can help us adapt to a future where water levels may continue to vary.
As we look ahead, we can take small steps to support our lake ecosystems and advocate for policies that address climate impacts on our treasured Great Lakes. A good resource which I encourage you to look at is Georgina Bay Forever. Their website is an excellent resource with information on water levels, quality and the area’s ecosystem.
With the recent 2024 U.S. presidential election, there may be a shift in climate policy that could negatively impact the Great Lakes and other environmental issues. Historically, U.S. climate policies have fluctuated depending on the administration. The Democratic administration if they had been elected would likely focus on advancing clean energy initiatives, rejoining international climate commitments, and implementing measures to curb greenhouse gas emissions. This aligns with the party’s recent goals, like enhancing the Inflation Reduction Act to bolster renewable energy adoption and continue investing in carbon-reducing technologies, which would help address some climate-driven issues affecting the Great Lakes region, such as warming waters and shifting water levels. This is now unlikely to happen and should be a concern for all of us.
If you have any questions about this topic or others pertaining to real estate in the area whether located on the water or elsehwere, please do not hesitate to Contact Me via email or direct at 705-4453-1037.
The author is a Broker, Market Value Appraiser-Residential with Sotheby’s International Realty Canada and a Past President (2008) of the Lakeland’s Association of REALTORS®.