In Part 1 of this blog post titled: “Why Isn’t My Home Selling? What You Can Do,” I provided some insights pertaining to the current real estate market and how they have altered the home selling process from what we experienced at the height of the housing boom in 2020 through to early 2022.

If you are currently trying to sell or are thinking about listing your home, condo, or other property, in this post, I will share some data that I have prepared from the MLS® System pertaining to the Southern Georgian Bay area. This will provide additional information that Sellers need to know to make informed decisions about successfully navigating the sale process.

Note: Results shared in the post are based on total MLS® sales for residential properties in Clearview Township, Collingwood, Grey Highlands, Municipality of Meaford, The Blue Mountains, and Wasaga Beach.

Market Trends from 2014 to 2019

From 2014 to 2019, MLS® single-family home sales in the six municipalities mentioned above ranged from under 1,500 to a high of 1,899 units per year in 2016 well before the global pandemic hit.  These numbers do not include the sales of new homes made directly by developers most of which do not go through the MLS® System. See chart below.

The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic

The COVID 19 pandemic arrived in early 2020 and it virtually shut down the real estate market for the first half of the year.  No one saw this global event coming nor did we know the impact it would have, we had had a fairly stable real estate market that many thought would continue well into the future.  As Realtors®, we were restricted to dealing only with those Buyers who had to purchase.  Strict COVID-19 protocols were in place, Open Houses were not permitted, and in many cases, Sellers did not want potential Buyers in their homes.  With a global pandemic that could be fatal who can blame them?

Post-Pandemic Sales Surge

As shown in the chart above, once the pandemic restrictions were lifted, the floodgate of Buyers opened, and annual MLS® home sales jumped from 1,602 units in 2019 to 2,036 homes sold in 2020 after which the market softened in 2021 and weaker demand remained through 2022, 2023 and has continued in 2024.

Two key factors triggered the boom in sales activity:

  • Low Mortgage Rates: Many Buyers who had stood on the sidelines for years jumped into the market, taking advantage of historically low mortgage rates.  Some were first-time Buyers, while access to cheap money prompted existing owners to upgrade to a larger home or buy that long-desired cottage or recreational property.  Southern Georgian Bay was one area that benefitted significantly from the latter.
  • Work-from-Home Trend: The new concept of “working from home” brought about by the pandemic served to drive sales. The inventory of homes listed on the MLS® System was extremely low, see chart below, leading to bidding wars and multiple offers.  Homeowners in markets such as the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) sold their homes for record-breaking prices and with the shift of working from home it allowed many to relocate outside the GTA, buying homes for much less.  Southern Georgian Bay and other locations benefitted from this lifestyle shift.

Current Market Conditions

As shown in the chart below, there were only 377 homes listed on the local MLS® system back in June 2021, compared to 1,168 today, an increase of 791 or 210%.  Clearly, Buyers today have plenty of choices, and there is no need for them to engage in multiple offers or bidding wars.  Times have changed, and we are back to more normal and stable market conditions, including an inventory of properties listed for sale on the MLS® System that is the highest level we have seen since 2016.

Back in 2021 and 2022, the overall MLS® list-to-sale-price ratio was around 102%, some months even higher with most homes getting multiple offers and selling for over their respective asking prices.  The chart below shows that the annual MLS® list-to-sale-price ratio to the end of May 2020 through 2024 has reverted back to around 97%, which is the historic norm provided the property is priced correctly to start with.

Have Home Prices Come Down?

The big question that many are asking is, “Have home prices come down?”  Overall, the answer is yes, but every property and circumstance should be looked at carefully and in detail.  Buyer demand is down while both mortgage rates and the inventory of homes listed for sale on the MLS® System for the Southern Georgian Bay area have increased substantially.  Multiple offers are almost non-existent.  With mortgage rates at 6% or higher versus around 2% back in 2020 through 2022, Buyers can’t afford nor are they willing to overpay, and banks are much more cautious in their mortgage approvals.  Neither of these factors are likely to change anytime soon.  The .25% interest rate reduction announced by the Bank of Canada in early June while welcomed, is not going to restore market activity in the short term.

The chart below shows the median MLS® residential sale price for homes sold in the Southern Georgian Bay area over the past 5 years. The numbers speak for themselves but it should also be noted that significantly weaker sales for homes priced $2 million and higher have also contributed to the reduction in the median MLS® residential sale price.

How Long Will It Take to Sell My Home?

Lastly, Sellers that have their home listed for sale or are thinking about selling often ask, “How long will it take to sell my home?”  Many factors come into play that will impact the time it takes to sell, the most important of which is price.  There is no question that an overpriced home has less Buyer appeal and as such, it will take longer to sell.  Other factors include the home’s location, condition, how many similar homes in the area are listed for sale, and more.  In reality, most of these factors are all a function of price and it is hard to argue otherwise.

Given the current market we are in, there is no question that “days-on-market” (DOM) the time it takes to sell has increased.  During the robust market we had in 2020 and 2021 where multiple offers and bidding wars prevailed, DOM could often be measured in hours, such is not the case today.  The MLS® System tracks both days-on-market (DOM) and cumulative days-on-market (CDOM).  In terms of the latter, we have all seen homes get listed for sale, and the listing either expires or is canceled only to see the home come back on the market, often at a reduced price.  When a property is listed then relisted again, the cumulative days-on-market (CDOM) is the total number of days the property has been listed and that is measured up until the day a sale becomes firm.  Often CDOM can run into months, not days, sometimes even years.  The chart below shows the residential May year-to-date MLS® CDOM for homes in the Southern Georgian Bay area covered in this post over the past 5 years.  During the robust sales years, CDOM was 10 to 12 days; as of May 2024, that has increased to 50 days.


Understanding these market dynamics is crucial for Sellers in today’s real estate market. By staying informed and being flexible, you can navigate the current conditions and make strategic decisions to sell your home successfully.  Hopefully what I have provided herein will provide you some idea as to the questions Sellers need to ask their respective listing Realtor® and I encourage you to do so.

In this post, we’ve provided a comprehensive look at the current market conditions in Southern Georgian Bay, offering valuable insights and data to help you sell your property effectively.  For more information and personalized advice, don’t hesitate to Contact Me with any questions or comments.   Happy selling!

Note: This blog post is not intended to solicit properties already listed for sale or to encourage sellers to break their current listing contract with any other real estate Brokerage.

The author is a Broker, Market Value Appraiser-Residential with Sotheby’s International Realty Canada and a Past President (2008) of the Lakeland’s Association of REALTORS®.